金融冲击、企业生存状况与货币政策——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的考察

Financial Shocks,Firm Dynamics and Monetary Policy:Analysis Based on a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

本文构建了一个包含企业进入和退出机制的金融冲击新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型,并基于这一模型对我国经济波动与货币政策进行了分析。金融冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,企业的进入和退出为"通胀之谜"提供了另一个角度的解释,并且基于未包含企业进入和退出机制的模型进行政策分析可能在低估金融冲击对于产出的效应的同时,也夸大了金融冲击对于通胀的影响。在此基础上,社会福利损失比较的结果表明,对企业生存状况做出反应的政策机制具有相对较小的社会福利损失。这一发现意味着政府可以依据企业生存状况进行货币政策调整。

Firms＇ ins and outs are stylized facts in economic activity. Based on this, this article considers a new Keynesian DSGE model with firms＇ ins and outs, and investigates the economic fluctuation and monetary policy of China. The Bayesian impulse response functions of financial shocks shows that firms＇ ins and outs may supplies a new perspective to explain the myth of infla- tion, and the model without firm dynamics may devaluate the effects of financial shocks on output, and overestimate its effects on inflation, Further, the result of social welfare comparison argues that, monetary policy should react to firm dynamics. This finding implies that the monetary author- ities should adjust monetary policy to firm dynamics.