基于变权模型的舟山群岛生态安全预警

Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model

生态安全预警是生态安全研究的重要内容,对维护区域生态安全具有重要的指示意义.本文以浙江省舟山群岛为例,基于驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应(DPSIR)框架模型构建了生态安全预警指标体系,使用变权模型对2000—2012年舟山市生态安全的预警等级进行测度,并使用马尔科夫预测方法对2013—2018年生态安全警情进行了预测.结果表明:变权模型能够有效地满足舟山群岛生态安全动态预警研究需要;2000—2012年,舟山群岛生态安全预警指数由0.286波动上升至0.484,警度等级从"重警"演变为"中警",指示灯由"橙灯"演化为"黄灯";2013—2018年,舟山群岛生态安全预警等级预测结果为"中警",指示灯为"黄灯".研究结果可为维护舟山群岛生态安全提供参考.

Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security re- search, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response （D-P-S-I-R） framework model, this paper took Zhou- shan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013- 2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from ＂serious alert＂ into ＂medium alert＂ and the in- dicator light turned from ＂orange＂ to ＂yellow＂. The degree of ecological security warning was ＂me- dium alert＂ with the light of ＂yellow＂ for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.