新疆对中亚农产品出口的竞争力评价及影响因素

Export Competitiveness of Xinjiang Agricultural Products to Central Asia and Its Influencing Factors

为进一步促进新疆农产品出口贸易的发展,基于2005—2012年新疆农产品出口贸易统计数据,采用比较优势指数和贸易竞争力指数测算新疆对中亚农产品出口的竞争力,并构建贸易引力模型分析新疆农产品出口中亚的影响因素。结果表明:2005—2012年新疆农产品具有较强的出口竞争力和显著的竞争优势。新疆与中亚五国的距离与其农产品贸易量呈负相关,且影响程度最大;新疆与中亚五国的人口和GDP与其农产品贸易量呈正相关,但人口的影响程度大于GDP;是否加入上海合作组织与其农产品贸易量没有显著关联。

The competitiveness of Xinjiang agricultural products export to Central Asia was calculated by using comparative advantage index and trade competition index based on the statistical data of agricultural products export trade during 2005 - 2012,and then the factors to influence agricultural products export to Central Asia were analyzed by the established trade gravity model to further promote development of agricultural products export trade.The results showed that agricultural product has the strong export competitiveness and significant competitive advantage.The distance between Xinjiang and five countries in Central Asia is negatively related to trade quantum of agricultural products.There is a positive correlation between population and GDP of Xinjiang and five countries in Central Asia and trade quantum of agricultural products but the influencing degree of population factor is higher than GDP. Whether participating in SCO （Shanghai Cooperation Organization）is not related to trade quantum of agricultural products significantly.