基于实物期权的多重不确定条件下人力资本投资决策

Investment Decision in Human Capital with Multiple Uncertainties Based on Real Options

以个人教育投资为例,充分考虑投资成本—收益的不确定性,首次构建了多重不确定性人力资本投资的实物期权模型。结合数值释例和比较静态分析,研究了各个关键不确定性参数的变动对投资阀值的影响。结果表明:投资不确定性的增强会使个人在人力资本最优投资阀值提高时推迟离开学校;预期投资收益的增加使个人倾向于尽快就业,而投资成本的不断上升则会一定程度地增强个人"等待"的激励,使个人倾向于继续留校;无风险利率的降低会刺激个人尽早进行人力资本投资。此外,与净现值模型相比,实物期权模型充分考虑了投资的多重不确定性,故所得出的投资阀值相对更高,而对投资成本-收益的敏感度更低。

Taking personal investments in schooling for example,given the full consideration of uncertainties in the cost-income of investment,a real option model in human capital investment under multiple uncertainties is first proposed. Combined with a numerical example and comparative static analysis,the changes in the investment thresholds brought about by each key uncertainty parameters＇ variation are analyzed. The result shows that the higher uncertainty increases the optimal threshold,which makes individuals tend to postpone leaving schools; the rise of expected investment income make people tend to choose to leave schools and to find jobs as soon as possible,while the rising cost of investment will enhance personal waiting for incentives,so that individuals tend to accept further educations; a lower risk-free rate may spur personal investments in human capital as early as possible. In addition,compared with NPV model,the proposed real options model takes full account of uncertainties. Therefore,the investment threshold is higher based on the proposed model,and the sensitivity of the change in the quantity of the cost-benefit of human capital investment is low.