影响项目风险评估基准的主观关键因素研究

Researches on Subjective Key Factors of Influencing Project Risk Assessment Baseline

识别形成项目风险评估基准过程的影响因素是准确反映实际风险的关键。考虑风险评估决策主体主观因素差异性,从决策学、心理学和社会安全管理领域提炼影响项目风险评估基准的13个主观因素,并通过因子分析确定了风险态度、期望程度、记忆经验、自信程度为影响决策者形成项目风险评估基准的主观关键因素,为进一步研究主观因素作用机理分析提供依据。

Identifying the influence factors＇of project risk assessment baseline is the key to accurately reflect the actual risk. Considering the differences of the risk decision makers＇ subjective factors,the situation and thirteen Subjective factors that influence the project risk assessment baseline from the three disciplines：decision - making theory,psychology, and social se- curity management Respectively are studied. Based on factor analysis, key factors that influence the project risk assessment baseline observably are put forwarded, including risk attitude, expectations, memory experience and level of confidence, which will be the basis for the study of key factors＇ influence mechanism to the project risk assessment baseline later.