城乡金融非均衡发展的门槛效应分析——基于二元经济转型的城乡金融互动视角

The Threshold Effect of Urban-rural Financial Development:Based on the View of Interaction in Economic Transformation

从城乡金融互动的角度研究城乡金融非均衡发展收敛的内在机制是二元金融结构研究的新视角。笔者在二元结构框架下,从城乡金融互动的角度探讨城乡金融非均衡发展的内在机制,提出城乡金融非均衡发展存在"分化—收敛"门槛效应的理论假说,并利用2003—2012年省际面板数据进行实证验证。研究发现:经济转型过程中,城乡金融发展存在由农村金融促进城市金融发展向城市金融带动农村金融发展演进的"门槛效应";城镇化和市场化因素对缩短城乡金融收敛过程具有积极作用。本文的结论解释了城乡金融非均衡发展过程对于外部干预和矫正不敏感的原因,并进一步证明了金融结构演进与经济结构转型的内在关系。因此,城乡金融均衡发展有赖于经济结构优化调整而不是仅仅通过增加农村金融供给来实现。

The study of interaction mechanism is a new perspective for study on imbalance development of urban-rural financial structure. In the dual structure framework,this paper put forward the theoretical hypothesis that there existed a ＂differentiation-convergence＂threshold effect in the imbalanced development of urban-rural financial sectors. The empirical study using the panel data from 2003—2012 supported the hypothesis and it also indicated that urbanization and marketization had positive effect to shorten the convergence process. This conclusion provides some further evidence of the internal relationship between the evolution of dual financial structure and the transformation of economic structure. It also explains why the imbalanced development of urban-rural financial sectors is not insensitivity to the external intervention. The results suggest that instead of simply increasing the supply of rural finance,optimizing economic structure is more effective for adjusting urban-rural financial structure.