渔业管理中TAC制度的实施及其动态调整

Implementation and Dynamic Adjustment of TAC System in the Fishery Management

在现代海洋渔业管理中,针对过度捕捞问题而确立的总量控制制度及其衍生制度,都涉及TAC(可允许捕捞总量)的确定。确定TAC需要考虑多方面因素,其中着重是海洋生态因素和经济因素。尽管在实践中,采用TAC制度的各国都有各自的确定TAC的方法,但目前学术界尚未见到完善的确定TAC方法的研究。我国虽早已提出海洋捕捞要进行总量控制,但直至今日仍没能贯彻实施,其原因之一就是TAC确定的困难。笔者同时考虑海洋生态因素和经济因素,构建了一个连续时间的单鱼种动态渔业经济模型,给出了TAC的动态调整路径。最后,利用我国渤海湾的渔业数据,对模型中的参数做了校准,并运用倒向递推法对相关TAC的调整路径进行了数值模拟。本文所构建的模型可作为海洋渔业制定TAC的一种基准模型,其核心价值在于提供了一种制定TAC的指导原则和思维视角,具有方法论意义。在此基础上,可进行多鱼种的拓展。本文对于我国海洋渔业部门制定TAC具有参考价值。

In modern marine fishery management,total control system and its derivative systems for the overfishing problem are all related to the determination of TAC（ total allowable catch）. Many factors need to be considered when determining the TAC,especially including marine ecological and economic factors. In practice,all countries have their own ways to set TACs. However,up to date,a suitable theoretical model for determining TAC has not been found. Although total control for marine fishing has already been proposed in China,it has not been implemented in practice,one of the reasons for which is the difficulty to determine the TAC. Taking into account the marine ecosystem and economic factors,this paper sets up a continuous-time single species dynamic fishery economics model,and provides the dynamic path of TAC adjustment. Finally,using the fishery data of Bohai bay,we calibrate the model and give a simulation of the TACs by the method of backward recursion. The model in this paper can be taken as a benchmark model for determining TAC,the key value of which is in that it presents a principle and a perspective for determining TAC,and hence,has a methodological value. Based on this model,a multi-species expansion can be done. This paper is of great value for China to set TACs concerning its marine fishery management.