基于面板数据的领导层过度自信与企业绩效关系研究——企业投资水平的中介效应探索

Research Based on Panel Data on the Relationship between the Overconfidence of Leadership and the Enterprise Performance: Exploration on the Mediating Effect of Business Investment Level

自20世纪中期以来,公司绩效与投资关系研究一直是公司金融理论的核心内容之一,而传统公司金融理论都是建立在理性人假设基础上的,可是企业实际情况却并不与理性假设完全重合。由此,引入行为公司金融理论进行完善,选取领导层过度自信作为研究对象,探索其是否会造成投资行为异化,进而影响了公司绩效。笔者在充分考虑资本市场环境及企业现金流的基础上,以行为公司金融为视角,以领导层过度自信为研究起点和企业绩效为终点,用企业投资水平为研究中介连接点,利用深沪两市2008—2011年的A股上市公司动态面板数据为样本,深入探讨领导层过度自信、投资水平与企业绩效之间的内在影响机制。研究结果表明:2008年金融危机爆发以来,在资本市场较为低迷、企业现金流较为短缺的情况下,领导层过度自信的公司容易表现为投资不足且领导层过度自信与企业价值负相关,投资水平在领导层过度自信与企业绩效之间起到完全中介作用。

Since the mid-20 th century,the research on the relationship between enterprise performance and investment has been one of the core contents of corporate finance theory. And the traditional corporate finance theory was based on the hypothesis of rational people,the actual situation of an enterprise,however,will not overlap completely with the rational hypothesis. Hence,we introduce and improve the behavior corporate finance theory,take the overconfidence behavior of leadership as the research object and explore whether they will cause investment behavior alienation and further affect the enterprise performance. On the basis of fully considering the capital market environment and corporate cash flow and with behavioral corporate finance as the perspective,the overconfidence of leadership as the starting point of the research,the enterprise performance as the end point and the business investment level as the mediating connection point of the research,this paper explores deeply the internal affecting mechanism of the overconfidence of leadership,the investment level and the enterprise performance by employing 2008—2011 Shenzhen and Shanghai A-share listed companies’ dynamic panel data as samples. The result has showed that since the 2008 financial crisis,under the conditions that the capital market is relatively weak and the corporate cash flow are not sufficient,the companies whose leadership are overconfidence have invested inadequately and there exists a negative correlation between the overconfidence of leadership and the corporate value. The investment level has played a full mediating role between the overconfidence of leadership and the enterprise performance.