中央银行独立性对若干经济指标的影响分析

The Analysis of the Impact of Central Bank Independence on Several Economics Indexes

随着我国市场经济体制的不断完善,中央银行独立性水平(CBI)受到广泛关注,选取消费者价格指数、基尼系数、失业率和利率四个经济指标,用最小二乘估计法分别研究中央银行独立性对各指标造成的影响,用Eviews8.0对其进行量化分析。结果表明,CBI与CPI和利率呈现反向变动关系,与基尼系数和失业率呈现同向变动关系,并以统计意义检验和经济意义检验证明了模型的合理性。提出提高央行独立性水平的政策措施。

As the maturation of China＇s market economic system progresses, the central bank independence has been arising increasing prevalence from the general population.The following report assessed the influences produced by CBI based on CPI, GINI, unemployment rate and interest rate.The correlations between these indexes were analyzed by using Eviews 8.0.The results illustrated that CBI and CPI, CBI and interest rate both change in an inverse proportional fashion,while the CBI and GINI,CBI and unemployment rate Change in a direct proportional fashion.The rationality of the model has been analyzed and proven by conducting statistical and economical tests.Several proposals for elevating the level of central bank independence are presented at the end of the paper.