人口老龄化对河北省经济发展的影响分析

The Impact of Population Aging on the Economic Development of Hebei Province

河北省已经进入人口老龄化社会,研究人口老龄化对经济发展的影响十分必要。在分析河北省人口老龄化的现状和特点的基础上,通过选取经济指标和人口指标,并利用所选取的指标建立向量自回归模型,通过模型的协整检验和脉冲响应函数就人口老龄化对经济发展的影响作出实证分析。人口老龄化对河北省经济增长产生了较大的负面影响:老年人口抚养比每上升1%,人均GDP下降24%,人口老龄化在过去10年中对河北省的经济发展造成了较大阻碍。建议调整经济结构,转变经济增长方式;鼓励老年市场、老年产业开发;制定和实施合理的人口政策;深化养老制度改革,从而减少老龄化对经济增长的负面影响。

Hebei Province has entered the aging society, it is necessary to study the influence of population aging on e- conomic development. Based on the analysis of the aging population status and characteristics in Hebei province. By selecting economic indicators and demographic indicators,using selected indicators established vector auto-regression model, and making empirical analysis of the impact of pop-ulation aging on economic development through co-integra- tion test and impulse response function model, the result shows population aging has a strong negative impact on e- conomic growth in Hebei province. 1% increase in the el- derly dependency ratio results in 24% GDP decrease. Aging population in the last decade had been to greater obstacle in Hebei Province economic development. It is proposed to adjust the economic structure, transform growth mode, encour- age the aged people industrial market and development; make and carry sound population policies, and deepen pen- sion system reform to reduce the negative impact of aging on economic growth.