基于贝叶斯网络的航空维修差错致因分析

Analysis of Inducement Factors Analysis in Aviation Maintenance Errors Based on Bayesian Network

近年来事故分析显示,维修差错导致的航空事故在总事故中占较大的比重,精确分析维修差错的诱发因素有助于提高维修质量管理。在分析维修差错模式及诱发因素的基础上,基于贝叶斯网络建立了以维修任务为叶节点的差错致因分析网络,通过概率重要度分析和关键重要度分析对维修差错致因进行了定性、定量评估。通过对某航空事故的分析表明该方法切实可行。

In recent years,aviation accidents analysis has showed that accidents caused by mainte-nance errors in total accidents still take a larger proportion.The precise analysis of inducement factors in maintenance errors helps to improve the quality of maintenance management.This article,on the basis of analyzing the maintenance error model and inducing factors according to the maintenance tasks,establi-shes a Bayesian network for civil aviation maintenance error analysis,and through the probability impor-tance degree and key importance degree analysis methods assesses the qualitative and quantitative influ-ence of inducement factors in the maintenance errors.The analysis of some air accident shows that this method is feasible.