中部地区粮食生产比较优势分析与基地建设

Comparative Advantage of Grain Production in Central China and the Base Construction

中部地区是中国重要的粮食主产基地,在分析中部地区粮食生产规模优势、效率优势、综合比较优势和集中度的基础上,进一步探讨了中部地区粮食生产基地建设对策。结论如下:1 1978年以来,中部地区水稻和小麦具有稳定的比较优势,而玉米和大豆没有比较优势。其中水稻生产的综合优势指数均在1.10以上;小麦综合优势表现为稳中有升,从1978年为1.00上升到2012年为1.16;玉米的综合优势指数小于0.80;大豆的综合优势呈现下降趋势,从1978年为0.90下降到2012年为0.80。2整体从横向来看,水稻、小麦、玉米、大豆四大粮食作物的比较优势结构发生了变化。1978年规模优势大小顺序为:水稻>大豆>小麦>玉米;效率优势为:小麦>水稻>玉米>大豆;综合优势为:水稻>小麦>大豆>玉米。2012年规模优势为:水稻>小麦>大豆>玉米;效率优势为:小麦>水稻>大豆>玉米;综合优势为:小麦>水稻>大豆>玉米。3中国四大区域中的东部地区、西部地区和东北地区粮食生产的集中度均有波动,唯有中部地区的粮食集中度保持稳定上升,其粮食、水稻、小麦、玉米的集中度由1978年的28.65%、38.13%、28.83%、16.16%分别上升到2012年的30.08%、39.87%、42.40%、17.16%,2012年中部地区粮食、水稻、小麦的集中度位于四大区域之首。4分析表明,中部地区粮食生产在全国的地位越来越重要,应采取各项措施促进中部地区粮食生产的稳定与增长。

Central China, which consists of Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan provinces, is an important base for main food supply in China. After analyzing scale advantage, efficiency advantage, compre- hensive comparative advantage and concentration ratio of grain production in Central China, this article further discusses countermeasures for the construction of grain production base in this region. First, it is found that, since 1978, rice and wheat in Central China have a stable comprative advantage while the corn and soybean do not. The comparative advantage index of rice production is above 1.10 per year and wheat production shows a steady rise, going from 1.00 in 1978 to 1.16 in 2012. The comparative advantage index of corn production is below 0.80 and soybean production presents a downward trend, going from 0.90 in 1978 to 0.80 in 2012. Sec- ond, seen from the horizontal perspective, the structure of comparative advantage of the four grain crops chang- es slightly. In 1978, the sequence of scale advantage is rice, soybean, wheat and corn, the sequence of efficien- cy advantage wheat, rice, corn and soybean, and the sequence of comparative advantage rice, wheat, soybean and corn. In 2012, the sequence of scale advantage is rice, wheat, soybean and corn, the sequence of efficiency advantage wheat, rice, soybean and corn, and the sequence of comparative advantage wheat, rice, soybean and corn. Third, the concentration ratios of grain production in eastern, western and northeast regions of China fluc- tuate whereas the concentration ratios of grain production in the central region keeps rising steadily. The con- centration ratio of grain, rice, wheat and corn rose from 28.65%, 38.13%, 28.83% and 16.16% in 1978 to 30.08%, 39.87%, 42.40% and 17.16% in 2012 respectively. The statistics in 2012 shows that the concentration ratio of grain, rice, wheat ranked first among the four regions. Fourth, the analysis shows that grain production in the central region plays an increasing role in China. Therefore, from the perspective of grain safety in China, importance should be attached to grain production in Central China so as to remain firm in the status of the cen- tral region as a base for main food supply. And various measures should be taken to promote the stability and growth of grain production in Central China.