暴雨洪灾风险评估研究进展

Progress of Rainstorm Flood Risk Assessment

洪灾风险评估是洪灾风险管理的首要步骤,作为非工程性防洪措施的一种,要及时、准确地把握洪水灾害的多方面特征。首先对洪灾风险形成机理、洪灾风险评估与区划、洪灾风险评估方法3个方面进行国内外研究现状及分析,指出当前洪灾风险评估中在评估指标体系、评估方法及模型、风险演变驱动机制等方面尚存在的问题,最后,对洪灾风险评估中的发展趋势进行了展望。

With the deepening of the disaster research worldwide as well as China＇ s rapid economic develop- ment in the past three decades, people both within China and around the world have paid more and more atten- tion to the awareness of disaster prevention and reduction. The risk assessment is one of the most important and basic study areas and has thus become increasingly important and urgent for China. The risk assessment is not only for the risk analysis, which has become an important part of disaster prediction, damage assessment, and disaster reduction decision. The risk assessment has also a great significance for the disaster risk during the development, utilization of resources, disaster defense, and governance and reducing disaster plan. In addi- tion, this type of assessment could provide the scientific basis for the rapid assessment and decision making when suffering disasters. Flood is one of the most devastating events among the disasters. It is well-acknowl- edged that flood risk assessment is the first step in the management of flood risk. As a kind of non-engineering flood control measures, this type of assessment aims to obtain the flood disaster status both timely and accu- rately. In order to reduce the harm caused by the rainstorm flood disaster as much as possible, and to under- stand the occurrence and development of the rainstorm flood disaster from the scientific sense, the assessments of regional flood risk has become one of the hottest issues in the current academic research. Firstly, this article elaborated the basic concept of the rainstorm flood disaster. Second, we investigated the current literature sta- tus both domestically and internationally on three aspects including the formation mechanism of flood risk as- sessment, risk assessment and regionalization of flood, and flood risk assessment method. We further pointed out the existing research problems on the establishment of the evaluation index system, the determination of the weight of the assessment index system, the evaluation method and model, and the driving mechanism of risk change. Finally, this paper carried on the predictions on the development trend of flood risk assessment from several aspects including the data processing, the temporal and spatial dimensions, and the method of risk evaluation. We believe that this study could become one of the most important handy references to help re- searchers and it may guide future studies in the investigation of flood risk assessment.