农民工市民化的红利效应与中国经济增长的可持续性——基于动态CGE的模拟分析

The Dividend Effect of Citizenization of Rural Migrant Workers and the Sustainability of China's Economic Growth:Simulation Analysis Based on Dynamic CGE Model

文章基于可计算一般均衡模型(CHINAGEM)并考虑了农民工市民化的"职业依赖"特征,在多元劳动力转移矩阵中引入了农民工和城市非熟练劳动力的流动机制,设置了分阶段农民工市民化模拟场景,运用实际与拟合数据评估其动态经济效应。结果表明:城市非熟练劳动力和农民工"替代效应"引致的劳动力市场供给结构的变化,直接改善了劳动力供给的质量,并通过不同技能劳动力相对工资的变动促进了城市非熟练劳动力向熟练劳动力的升级,实现了整个就业市场的结构优化;在供给方面,劳动力市场的变化带动了不同行业的资本存量积累,从而推动了产业结构向制造业和服务业的转型;在需求方面,国民收入的改善促进了长期消费增长,而劳动力要素成本的整体下降则提升了出口规模。因此,农民工的市民化给中国经济增长带来了长期的红利。

Based on the computable general equilibrium model and taking the career dependence feature of citizenization of rural migrant workers into account,this paper introduces the labor transfer mechanism between rural migrant workers and urban unskilled labor into diverse labor transfer matrix,and establishes the simulation scenarios at different stages to evaluate the dynamic economic effect of citizenization of rural migrant workers by real and fitting data.The results indicate that the changes in the structure of labor supply created by the substitution effect between urban unskilled labor and rural migrant workers lead to direct improvement of the quality of labor supply and promote the upgrading of urban unskilled labor to skilled labor by changes in relative wages of labor with different skills,thereby realizing the structure optimization of total employment market.As for supply,the change in the labor market results in the capital stock accumulation in different industries,thereby promoting the transformation of industrial structure to manufacturing and services sectors;as for demand,the improvement of national income advances longterm consumption growth and the whole decrease in labor factor costs gives rise to the increase in export scale.All in all,the citizenization of rural migrant workers brings long-term dividend effect to economic growth in China.