我国汽车制造业供应链风险评价实证研究——基于熵权可拓决策模型的分析

Empirical research on supply chain risks evaluation in Chinese automobile manufacturing industry:analysis based on entropy extension decision model

为应对和防范汽车制造业供应链风险,基于我国汽车制造业供应链典型结构,考虑供应链内生风险,从需求风险、供应风险和物流风险等7个方面,构建汽车制造业供应链风险评价指标体系。结合熵权理论和可拓思想,建立基于熵权可拓决策模型的汽车制造业供应链风险评价模型;确定供应链风险的经典域、节域和评价对象;给出供应链风险评价步骤;并就A省JHQC、QRQC、XMQC共3家汽车制造企业供应链风险数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明:3家企业供应链风险等级分别为Ⅰ(低风险状态)、Ⅰ(低风险状态)和Ⅱ(较低风险状态),总体状况良好,但XMQC汽车制造企业供应链风险有恶化的趋势。且评价结果与实际基本一致,也表明指标选取和模型构建是有效的。

To prevent and respond supply chain risks in automobile manufacturing industry, a supply chain risks evalua-tion index system about automobile manufacturing industry is built from demand risks, supply risks, logistics risks and so on seven aspects based on supply chain typical structure in Chinese automobile manufacturing industry. The entropy weight theory is applied to combine with extension thought to establish an automobile manufacturing industry supply chain risks evaluation model based on entropy extension decision model. The classical and limited fields about supply chain risks and evaluation objects are identified. The steps and processes about supply chain risks evaluation are presented. Combined with supply chain risks data of JHQC、QRQC and XMQC three automobile manufacturing enterprises in A province, an empirical research is implemented. The results show that three enterprises’supply chain risk levels are in I （lower risk level）, I（lower risk level）and II（low level）respectively. Overall speaking, the present situation is good, but XMQC automobile manufacturing enterprise’s supply chain risks have a worsened tendency. Index choice and model building is effective because of the correspondence between evaluate result and reality.