“中等收入陷阱”还是“社会福利陷阱”——基于“后发外生型”转型国家的视角

Middle Income Trap or Social Welfare Trap: A Perspective of Post-Developing Exogenous Transitional Country

"中等收入陷阱"作为一种经济表象,其背后的根本原因是"社会福利陷阱"。"中等收入陷阱"的主要表现是原有支撑经济发展的有利因素耗尽而形成的经济停滞,而"社会福利陷阱"的主要表现则是政府在促进社会福利最大化方面难以有所作为。具体表现在两个层面:既无法打破造成贫富差距日益扩大的现有不合理分配体制和利益格局;同时又没能适时增加社会福利和民生投入,从而扩大内需、培育人力资本、促进产业升级。中国作为"后发外生型"转型国家,要突破"社会福利陷阱",政府必须转变角色、职能和治理模式,承担起应有的社会福利责任。中国走出"社会福利陷阱"的过程是走向法治国家和福利社会的过程,这既是经济、社会和政治改革三阶段的第二阶段,也是国家治理模式的重大转型。

As an economic appearance, the real reason behind the Middle-Income Trap is a Social Welfare Trap. As to the Middle-Income Trap, its main performance is the favorable factors supporting economic development drain-ing and forming economic stagnation; and the main performance of the Social Welfare Trap is that the govern-ment is hard to make a difference in promoting social welfare. It embodies in two aspects, causing widening gap between the rich and the poor, and failing to timely increase social welfare and public investment to expand do-mestic demand, foster human capital and promote industrial upgrading. China, as an exogenous and late comer,needs to change its government roles, functions and management modes. The process of China moving away from the Social Welfare Trap is its changing into a country under the rule of law and with well social welfare, which is the second and third stages of the economic, social and political reform, also a significant transformation of governance mode which lays a foundation for the future political reform.