人民币汇率形成机制改革的进展、问题与建议

The Developments, Problems and Suggestions: on the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism

2005年中国央行重启汇改至今,人民币对主要货币汇率已经显著升值,人民币汇率弹性明显增强,中国央行对外汇市场的干预程度有所下降。然而,迄今为止,中国央行仍偏好于对每日汇率中间价进行持续干预,这抑制了人民币远期与外汇市场的发展。人民币对美元汇率的相对稳定,在美元指数急升的背景下造成人民币有效汇率升值过快,对出口增长形成了不必要的负面冲击。市场上流行的通过维持强势人民币来推进人民币国际化的观点,存在本末倒置的问题。为进一步推动人民币国际化,中国央行应该降低对汇率中间价的干预,顺应市场供求压力,让人民币对美元汇率适当贬值;建立年度汇率宽幅目标区来平衡汇率灵活性与稳定性的需求;不要过快开放资本账户以避免短期资本大进大出可能造成的汇率超调。

Since the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005, RMB has appreciated significantly against major currencies,while the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has increased gradually, and the intervention of PBC on foreign ex-change market has decreased. As the result of persistent RMB appreciation, the export growth YOY has de-clined from 20% before the GFC to 7% during 2012-2014, and the current account surplus to GDP ratio has declined from 10% in 2007 to 2% during 2011-2014. However, the persistent invention on the middle price of daily RMB exchange rate by PBC has constrained the development of RMB forward market, while the relative stability of RMB against USD has caused the over-fast appreciation of RMB's effective exchange rate under strong USD index, and there has been a myth of promoting RMB internationalization by maintaining the strength of RMB exchange rate. Our suggestions include that, PBC should decrease the intervention on RMB 's daily middle price; PBC should establish an annual wide exchange rate target zone to strike the balance between RMB flexibility and stability; and PBC should avoid the haste liberalization of capital account to avoid the over-shooting of RMB exchange rate as a result of large swings of short-term capital flow.