贸易自由化对研发技术进步影响的异质门槛效应

Heterogeneous Threshold Effect of Trade Liberalization's Impact on R&D Technological Progress

基于2004—2012年中国工业行业31个细分行业的面板数据,采用门槛回归技术实证研究了贸易自由化对研发技术进步影响的异质门槛效应。研究表明:(1)贸易自由化与研发技术进步呈倒"N"型的非线性关系,即随着贸易自由化水平由低变高,其对研发技术进步会产生先降低后提高再降低的影响规律;(2)贸易自由化的研发技术进步效应还取决于市场化水平、外商直接投资等影响,在环境规制、外商直接投资及行业利润门槛条件下贸易自由化对研发技术进步的影响总体呈负向效应,而在市场化水平门槛条件下呈倒"U"型特征,在企业规模门槛条件下呈"U"型特征;(3)不同门槛条件下贸易自由化对研发技术进步的门槛效应存在明显的行业异质性特征,其中具有负向影响的行业分布较为集中。

Based on the panel data of 31 China industrial sub - sectors from the year 2004 to 2012, and by means of thresh- old regression model, this paper conducts empirical study on heterogeneous threshold effect of trade liberalization＇ s impact on R＆D technological progress. The result shows that： （1） there is the“inverted -N” nonlinear relationship between the trade liberalization and the R＆D technological progress. That is, with the improvement of the trade liberalization level, its impact on R＆D technological progress will be weakened firstly, intensified afterwards, and then weakened again; （2） trade liberalization＇ s impact on the R＆D technological progress will also depend on such factors as marketization level, FDI, etc.. On the threshold condition of environmental regulation, FDI and the industrial profits, trade liberalization＇ s general impact on the R＆D technological progress is negative, while when under the threshold condition of marketization level, its impact shows “inverted - U style” . And on the threshold prerequisite of enterprise scale, the impact presents the feature of “U” model; （3） on the condition of different thresholds, there is the significant heterogeneity characteristic upon trade liberalization＇ s threshold effect on R＆D technological progress, with industries that are negatively affected concentrated.