中国首次“低碳试点”政策的减碳效果评价——基于五省八市的DID估计

The Effect of China's First Low- carbon Pilot—DID Estimation of Five Cities and Eight Provinces

2010年7月中国在广东、云南等五省八市开展首批低碳试点工作。截至2012年底,该政策已实施3年,目前还未文献对其效果进行考察。通过利用中国30个省市自治区(不包括西藏、香港、澳门和台湾)2005—2012年面板数据和构建双重差分模型(DID),首次对试点政策的减碳效果进行评价。结果显示:(1)实行低碳试点的地区显著降低了其人均碳排放量,2010—2012年间平均影响效应为-0.074 2;(2)时间趋势上,减碳效果由不显著到显著、由弱到强,2010—2012年各年碳影响效应分别为不显著、-0.075 1和-0.099 6。得出结论:低碳试点取得了显著且持续性的成效。总结试点地区的成功经验,以供其他地区借鉴参考。

China launched her first low -carbon pilots in five cities and eight provinces in July 2010. This program has taken place for three years by 2012, yet there has been no researches concerned with its effect. For the first time, this study evaluates the effect with the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces and autonomous regions except Tibet from 2005 to 2012, by building a DID model. The results suggest that the implementation of the low - carbon policy had significantly inhibited per capita carbon emitters in pilot provinces and cities, of which the average effect from 2010 to 2012 was esti- mated to -0. 0742. Based on the analysis of dynamic changes, the authm~ find that the pilot＇ s time - varying effect presents a tendency from insignificant to significant, from weak to strong. The impact of the policy on per capita carbon e- mission in the year of 2010, 2011, 2012 are unremarkable, - 0. 075l and - 0. 0996 respectively. According to the findings above, this paper concludes that low - carbon pilot policy has achieved remarkable results, and the experience of the pilot areas can be adopted in other regions.