2014年世界和中国石化工业综述及2015年展望

The global petrochemical industry: 2014 review and 2015 outlook

2014年,世界乙烯装置平均开工率为86.5%,好于上年。全年全球乙烯生产能力为15749万吨/年,产量为13631万吨,分别较上年增长400万吨/年和437万吨;以乙烷为原料的乙烯裂解装置提升速度放缓。美国仍是最大的乙烯生产国,产能继续增长。乙烯价格回升,裂解乙烯利润明显好转;但多数下游产品仍受供应增长打压,价格回落,利润难以传导到下游产品。2014年中国乙烯产能净增271万吨/年,总产能达到2060万吨/年;乙烯产量为1819万吨,增长明显;乙烯当量消费量为3587万吨,增长4.9%,较上年明显回落。受油价快速下跌影响,化工行业利润增长受到抑制。2015年,世界石化工业出现企稳回升迹象,亚洲及中东地区石化产业占比提升,石脑油裂解乙烯毛利将继续保持较好水平,CTO、MTO装置陷入困境。中国多数石化产品产能增速放缓,煤化工成为乙烯产能增长主要动力,石化产品消费将保持中低速增长。

In 2014 world ethylene plant capacity utilization was 86.5% on average, better than the year before. Annual global ethylene production capacity was 157.49 million tons per year, and production 136.31 million tons, respectively up 4 and 4.37 million tons from the previous year. Expansion of ethylene cracking facilities using ethane as feedstock slowed down. The US remained the world's largest producer of ethylene and its capacity continued to grow. The ethylene prices continued to rise, and profi ts from ethylene cracking improved markedly. However, most downstream products remained subject to supply growth pressure and a fallback in prices, to the point of making it hard for any profi t to be transferred through to downstream products. In 2014 China's ethylene production capacity increased by a net 2.71 million tons per year, with overall capacity reaching 20.6 million tons per year, while ethylene production was 18.19 million tonsand ethylene equivalent consumption was 35.87 million tons at a 4.9% growth rate down signifi cantly from the previous year. Affected by the rapid descent in oil prices, chemical industry profit growth was restrained. In 2015 the world petrochemical industry is showing signs of stabilization and recovery accounted for by the Asian and Middle Eastern petrochemical industries, the gross margin from naphtha cracking ethylene will stay at a good level, but Confi gure-ToOrder and Made-To-Order installations face trouble. Most of China's petrochemical production growth will slow, the coal chemical industry will become the main driver of ethylene capacity growth, and growth in consumption of petrochemical products will remain slow.