基于生态足迹的苏州市可持续发展动态研究

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN SUZHOU ON ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

以苏州市为例，应用生态足迹分析法对苏州市1990～2010年生态足迹及生态承载力进行统计核算，并对苏州市可持续发展程度进行了定量研究和动态分析。研究结果表明，苏州市2010年人均生态足迹为6．48hm2，人均生态承载力为0．27hm2，人均生态赤字高达6．21hm2，远远超出了目前的生态承载力，城市生态系统处于不可持续的发展状态。通过动态分析，结果显示苏州市的生态足迹不断增大，但增长速度正在变缓，生态承载力稳中有降，万元GDP生态足迹也在下降，这表明苏州市的资源利用率不断提高。提出了苏州市需尽快进行社会经济结构调整，控制人口增长，对耕地实行严格的保护，提高能源利用效率和降低能源消耗等措施，以减少生态赤字，促进社会经济可持续发展。

Ecological footprint,as a measurement to estimate the status of sustainable development,reflects the degree of making use of the nature by humans. With the ecological footprint analysis theory advanced by William Rees, this article calculates the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity to research and analyze the sustainable development of Suzhou. According to the data of Suzhou Statistics Yearbook 1990--2010,the results show that the ecological footprint per capita of Suzhou was 6.48 hm2in 2010,the ecological carrying capacity per capita was 0.27 hm2 ,the ecological deficit per capita was up to 6.21 hm2 in 2010 which is far beyond the current bio-capacity. This means the urban ecological system is not sustainable now. There is contradiction between supply and demand of fossil fuel land, cultivated land, grassland and water, while construction land and woodland is slightly surplus. The deficit of fossil fuel land is up to 5.53 hm2 in 2010. The cultivated land and construction land provides more than 90% ecological supply for the city. The ratio reflects the large consumption of fossil fuel and it is in accordance with the economic development of Suzhou. Ecological footprint per capita of Suzhou is continued rising from 1.36 hm2 in 1990 to 6.48 hm2in 2010. The average annual growth is 25.59% and increases most from 2000 to 2005. It turns slowly since 2005 because the city began to pay attention to the optimization of the industrial structure and improve the utilization rate of resources. The ecological footprint of Suzhou is much larger than the national and global average conditions. The ecological footprint of arable land is decreasing which is inconsistent with the increasing population and food consumption. It shows that Suzhou is increasingly dependent on imported food from the surroundings. The increase of construction land reflects the urbanization. The ecological capacity per capita steady decreases due to the reduction of cultivated land and the change of construction land. Thus, ecological deficit per capita is in accordance with the footprint. The city is in deficit condition since 1990, and sustainable develop＇ment is the major problem that must be solved in the process of economic development in Suzhou. Analysis of energy resources consumption in Suzhou indicates that coal occupies the largest ecological footprint. The current energy structure has brought heavy pollution. Compared with relevant data in previous years, it is found that although the ecological footprint of Suzhou is increasing, the rate of growth is slowing and the ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP is also declining. These means the utilization rate of resources is on the rise. Therefore, Suzhou should adjust the social and economic structure as soon as possible, control the growth of population, strictly protect the cultivated land, improve energy efficiency and cut down energy consumption, so as to reduce the ecological deficit and promote the social and economic sustainable development.