矿井瓦斯超限风险预测技术研究与应用

Research and Application of Gas Overrun Risk Prediction Technology of Coal Mine

在事故理论和灾害防治理论指导下,通过理论分析和数理统计研究了赵庄矿瓦斯超限致因因素,对地质构造、矿山压力等因素对瓦斯超限的影响规律进行了分析;结合瓦斯超限致因因素,构建了瓦斯超限孕育发展模型,通过瓦斯大量涌出、通风缺陷和管理重大隐患3大因素的指标体系的构建,建立了基于多级指标模式的赵庄矿瓦斯超限预测模型并设计开发出瓦斯超限风险评价系统。现场应用效果表明:系统可以在出现危险信息时及时发布相应等级的预测结果,给瓦斯灾害应急响应预留了充足时间。

In the guidance of accident theory and disaster prevention and control theory,through theoretical analysis and mathematical statistics,causal factors of gas overrun in Zhaozhuang Coal Mine were studied. Impact rules of geological structure,mine pressure on the gas overrun were analyzed. Combined with causal factors of the gas overrun,the development model of gas overrun was established.By constructing the index system of three major factors,such as the gas emission,the ventilation defects and major hidden trouble management,the gas overrun risk prediction model was established in Zhaozhuang Coal Mine based on multi-level index mode,and gas overrun risk assessment system was designed. The field application showed that this system could release the corresponding grade prediction result timely when the dangerous information appeared,it set aside sufficient time for the gas disaster emergency response.