人口年龄结构对中美贸易收支失衡的影响研究

Study on Influence of Population Age Structure on China–US Trade Imbalance

人口年龄结构差异是导致国别消费水平差异,进而影响双边国际收支状况的基础性因素。中国自1973年实行计划生育政策以来,人口自然增长率大幅下降,人口抚养比明显低于美国,而劳动参与率则高于美国。VAR模型检验的结果显示:中美人口年龄结构差异及其变化是导致中美双边贸易收支长期失衡的基础性因素,但老年抚养比对两国双边贸易失衡的影响则不显著。

The difference between population age structures is the fundamen- tal factor leading to the different national consumption levels, which further im- pacts the balance in bilateral international payments. Since the implementation of the one- child policy in 1973, China has seen a sharp decrease in the natural growth rate of population, with dependency ratio of China gradually decreasing to a level lower than that of the US; while the working- age population ratio is higher that of the US. The results from the VAR model test suggest that the changing difference in the population age structures is the fundamental factors that account for the long- term trade imbalance between China and the US, but the elderly dependency ratio does not play a significant role in the imbalance of bilateral trade.