贸易成本、实际汇率波动与贸易伙伴国的选择

Trade Cost, Fluctuation of Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Partner Choice

本文通过建立一个两国模型,从理论上推导出贸易成本加成是通过何种途径作用于实际汇率,进而从弱化汇率波动的角度探讨一国对贸易伙伴国的选择问题。本文还利用21个国家和地区1990-2013年的相关数据进行了面板回归分析。研究表明,汇率制度缺乏弹性且以间接金融为主的贸易顺差国(或地区)的实际汇率波动会因贸易成本的增加而增大,因此选择那些地理距离较近的国家作为贸易伙伴会缩减实际汇率波动,如中国、日本和俄罗斯等;而汇率制度较有弹性且货币政策以利率为目标的国家的实际汇率波动会因贸易成本的增加而减小,因此更适合选择地理距离较远的国家作为贸易伙伴,如美国、英国和东盟诸国。

This paper uses a two- country model to explore the way how trade costplus affects effective exchange rates and how to choose international trade partners to reduce the fluctuation in effective exchange rates. The paper also makes a panel regression analysis by using related data of 21 countries or regions from 1990 to 2013. The results suggest that the fluctuation of effective exchange rates has a positive relationship if a surplus country （or region） has a less flexibility exchange rate regime and a financial market based on indirect fi- nancing. Thus, it would be a wise choice for these countries to trade with their neighbors to weaken the effects of effective exchange rates fluctuation, such as China, Japan, Russia; and vice versa, such as the USA, UK and the ASEAN countries. In addition, the effect of trade makeup on the effective exchange rate has a negative relationship with GDP per capital. Thus, the effective exchange rate would be more stable if emerging market countries have a close trade rela- tionship with the developed countries.