中国隐性收入规模估计——基于扩展消费支出模型及数据的解读

An Extended Expenditure-based Estimation of Income Underreporting and Size of Black Economy in China

本文允许所有人群和所有收入来源都可能存在收入瞒报且瞒报比例并不一定为常数,基于居民优化决策行为对消费支出模型的原理和估计函数选取进行了扩展,之后利用2002年至2009年各年城镇住户调查数据,估算了我国的隐性收入规模,并重新考察了城镇居民的收入差距水平。研究发现:首先,收入瞒报存在"总量效应"和"结构性效应",意即:收入越高,瞒报程度越高;不同收入来源瞒报程度有别,财产收入的瞒报程度最高,工资收入次之,经营性收入和转移性收入最低。其次,调整瞒报因素后,以"城镇居民家庭总收入"为标准计算的基尼系数从原始数据中的0.31—0.34上升到了0.45—0.51之间。最后,测算出收入瞒报所导致的"隐性收入"规模约占我国2002—2009年间相应各年GDP的19%至25%。

A Allowing all households to underreport all kinds of income and making no prior assumptions on underreporting parameters, this article first modifies the classical expenditure-based approach. It then estimates the extent of income underreporting in urban China, using official data from the Urban Household Survey between 2002 and 2009. It finds that the income underreporting exhibits two characteristics. Households with higher income tend to underreport more. The underreported amount varies as the components of income change, even among households with the same level of aggregate income. More specifically, property income is the most underreported item, followed by wages and salaries, and operating income. Transfers are the least underreported source of income. Taking into account the gap between concealed and ＂true＂ income, it then calculates the Gini coefficient of inequality in China. The Gini coefficient obtained stands at 0. 45-0. 51, well above the number released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics （0.31-0.34）. The size of ＂black economy＂ in China as a result of underreporting amounts to 19 to 25 percent of its annual GDP over the period 2002-2009.