利用多种方法联合估计哈尔滨市MSM的规模

Various methods of estimating the population size of men who have sex with men in Harbin

目的估计哈尔滨市男男性行为人群（MSM）的规模,为制定和实施有针对性的艾滋病高危人群干预策略提供科学依据。方法利用捕获再捕获法、除数法和乘数法,对哈尔滨市MSM的规模进行估计。结果捕获再捕获法估计哈尔滨市MSM规模为9197人（8520~9874人）,MSM在18~77岁男性人口中比例为0.28%;除数法估计哈尔滨市浴池类MSM规模为4311人,酒吧类人群规模为3689人,所有活动场所内MSM规模为7381人;乘数法估计哈尔滨市MSM规模为14 812人。结论同时使用捕获再捕获法、除数法和乘数法进行人群规模估计,可以整合资源、节约时间,各种方法的结果可以相互验证,可信度高。

Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men （MSM） in Harbin, so as to provide basis for establishing prevention policy for AIDS high risk population. Methods Capture-recapture method, multiplier method and divisor method were used to estimate population size of MSM. Result The population size es- timated using capture-recapture method counted 9197 （8520-9874） in Harbin, among them male population aged 18- 77 accounted for 0.28%. The population size of MSM in public baths estimated by divisor method counted 4311, and in bar counted 3689, and in all places counted 7381. The estimated number of MSM in Harbin was 14 812 by multiplier method. Conclusion It is economic that using method to estimate the population size at the same time, make more accurate estimates. capture-recapture method, multiplier method and divisor and using various methods for mutual authentication can