新国家出口战略下美国出口流量与潜力分析——基于引力模型的实证研究

Analysis of US Export Flow and Potential under New National Export Strategy: An Empirical Study Based on Gravity Model

本文利用出口引力模型及2000~2012年的面板数据考察了外部因素及美国新国家出口战略主要措施对其出口的影响和潜力,结果显示：贸易伙伴国人均收入水平和基础设施等外部因素与美国出口增长正相关;政府对中小出口企业的扶持措施具有积极意义,但贸易与投资自由化安排作用不显著。相比以往战略,出口倍增计划有更强劲的出口拉动作用,但外部因素积极影响的消减大幅增加了后危机时期出口快速稳定增长的不确定性。未来美国整体出口潜力具有较大提升空间,其在下一阶段战略中应切实提升中小企业开拓新兴市场的意愿和能力,深化与欧盟、日本及新兴经济体贸易自由化,更应为创造健康、稳定、可持续发展的世界经济环境做出努力。

Based on the Gravity model, this paper examines the effects of external factors and the main export promotion measures of the American New National Export Strategy（NNES） on the US export and its potentials with the panel data from 2000 to 2012. The empirical results show that external factors, such as the level of per capita income and infrastructure of trading partners, are positively associated with America’ s export growth. As to the main export promotion measures of NNES, the supporting measures for small and medium – sized export enterprises（SMEs） have a significant effect, but liberalization of trade and investment does not. Compared with the previous strategy, the NNES in post–crisis period plays a much stronger role in expanding American exports, but the decreasing positive impact of external factors has led to the uncertainty of a fast and stable export growth in the near future. The US exports have a large potential for growth. In the next phase, the government should promote the SMEs’ willingness and enhance their ability to exploit new markets and deepen the liberalization of its trade and investment with the European Union, Japan and emerging economies while making efforts to create a healthy, stable and sustainable environment of world economy.