设计输入阶段的质量风险概率估算

Probabilistic Evaluation of Quality Risk in Input Stage of Design

浅析了风险概率估算在风险评价中的地位以及其对工程设计公司质量管理水平的影响,提出适用于工程设计行业的风险概率估算思路。详细探讨了设计输入阶段的质量风险发生概率的估算过程。提出细化风险因素、基准值设定、概率模型建立到概率风险分析的完整估算流程。讨论了采用回归法建立的经验估算模型和概率分布法建立的随机模型在风险概率估算中的适用范围和选择准则。

The importance of risk probability assessment in risk management and its influence in quality control of engineering company was analyzed at ifrst. A solution of risk probability assessment for national chemical engineering design ifeld was presented. And then in this article, the calculating procedures of quality risk probability in design input stage was discussed in detall. The integral procedure of risk assessment, which includes risk factors analysis, baseline setting and probability model establishing, was proposed. Finally, the condition and the selection of risk assessment model by using regression method and probability distribution model were discussed.