基于ARIMAX模型的甘肃农村居民消费预测与决策

ARIMAX Model-based Predicting and Decision-making of Rural Residents' Consumption in Gansu

根据甘肃农村居民1978-2011年的收入与消费支出，建立了基于ARIMAX的消费支出预测模型，拟合效果较好，利用此模型预测了甘肃省农村居民未来一年的消费支出，并建立误差修正模型用来衡量短期波动，最后分析了模型的结论及优缺点，提出了相关建议．

According to the 1978-2011 income and spending in Gansu province,it established consumption predic- tion model based on ARIMAX model,the model fit better., it predict consumption of rural residents next years by us- ing this model, established error correction model by using measure short-term fluctuations. Last, it analyzed the conclusions and the advantages and disadvantages of the model, and proposed some suggestions.