联盟网络与军事冲突:基于社会网络分析的考察

Alliance Network and Military Conflicts:A Social Network Analysis Perspective

联盟政治与军事冲突的关系是国际安全领域的经典议题,既有研究聚焦于国际体系、国内政治、联盟双边关系等因素如何影响联盟介入军事冲突的可能性,产生了比较丰硕的研究成果。由于联盟会形成由成员组成的复杂关系网络,塑造着网络内外的国家之间互动的模式,特定的网络结构也会对联盟成员介入军事冲突的能力和意愿产生影响。从社会网络分析视角看,联盟网络的结构特征主要由中心势、结构洞数量(网络密度)和联盟内部子群数量决定。利用已有的联盟数据和军事冲突数据,作者系统检验了联盟网络特征与军事冲突之间的关系,结果表明网络中心势与体系中的军事冲突数量呈负相关关系,而子群数量、网络密度与军事冲突的数量呈正相关关系。社会网络分析拓展了联盟政治与军事冲突之间关系的研究,也为系统探讨联盟政治及其影响提供了新的分析视角和工具,可以与统计分析、案例研究和形式模型等研究方法的成果互为补充。

The relationship between alliances and military disputes is an important issue in international security studies.Based on existing study,this article casts new discussion on the topic through Social Network Analysis(SNA).As alliances relationships take on network structure,so we can research their network quality with SNA,and test the network index.In detail,the cohesion(centrality) of alliance networks,the amount of structure hole(network density) and the subgroups,determine the network structure,and then influence the actions of alliance members,which affect the military disputes.We find that,the decrease of network centralization,and the decrease of subgroups as well as network density,will lead more military disputes.This research broadens the discussion on both alliance and military disputes,and provides a new way to discuss and solve other questions.Admittedly,social network analysis has its limitations.It should be combined with other methods,in order to take advantage of its structural and relationship orientation.