广东入境旅游与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Inbound Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Guangdong

利用相关分析、回归分析、Granger因果检验等方法,根据1978-2013年间广东国际旅游外汇收入与GDP的实际数据进行实证分析,结果表明:广东省入境旅游与经济增长呈现正相关并存在长期的协整关系,Granger检验的结论是广东经济增长带动了入境旅游发展。

In the purpose of searching the internal relation between Guangdong inbound tourism development and economic growth, the article applied correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality test methods into empirical analysis based on the Guangdong international tourism foreign currency income and practical statistics of GDP between the year of 1978 and 2013. The result indicates that there is a significant correlation and long term co-integration relation between Guangdong international tourism foreign currency income and GDP practical statistics. The conclusion from Granger causality is Guangdong economic growth improves the inbound tourism development. The article also launches related policies and recommendations.