金砖国家经济发展与能源消费碳排放因素分解比较分析

Comparative Study of Economic Development and Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emission in Energy Consumption in BRICS

金砖国家因经济发展的强劲势头和发展中大国等特征备受瞩目,在经济发展的同时,持续增长的碳排放也受到了关注。文章运用LMDI法比较分析金砖国家1971—2011年能源消费碳排放增长的影响因素及其贡献,研究发现:经济发展是拉动能源消费碳排放增长的决定性因素,尤其是对中国和印度显示出很强的拉动作用;能源强度是抑制能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素;人口规模对能源消费碳排放增长贡献较为稳定;碳强度影响作用不大;能源消费部门结构几乎不产生影响。由此,金砖国家要认清所处经济发展阶段,致力于创造公平的可持续发展环境,争取发展中大国的发展空间。

Economic development of BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) has a big potential, while its carbon emission attracts the whole world attention. This paper, by using LMDI, compares factors influencing growth of carbon emission by BRICS in energy consumption during 1971-2011 and their shares. The study shows that economic development is a decisive factor pulling its growth, energy intensity is a main factor, influence of population scale is stable and sector structure of energy consumption has no influence. So BRICS should have a clear understanding about their development stage and try their best to create a fair sustainable development environment.