摘要
通过GIS平台、高速公路高程相关信息以及交通事故等信息进行定位统计得到相应高速公路路段的事故密度,据此对浙江省高速公路的事故易发程度分级。同时建立高速公路气象影响评价的二级指标体系,并通过主成分分析法提取气象要素指标因子,建立Logistic回归建立气象指标评价模型,从而确定交通气象影响评价等级,通过应用检验证明该模型对交通气象条件评价与实况较为符合,能够为交通部门和公众提供一定的决策依据。
The accident density of expressway is obtained by GIS platform, elevation information and traffic accidents and other information, based on which the accidents-prone degree grading is made for the expressways in Zhejiang Province. The two level index system is established for evaluation of meteorological influence on the expressways, and the meteorological indicators is extracted by principal component analysis, Logistic regression index evaluation model is built, so as to determine the level of meteorological traffic impact assessment. Through application and testing, the model prediction is quite consistent with the observation, which can provide a decision basis for the department of transportation and the public.
出处
《公路》
北大核心
2015年第6期136-141,共6页
Highway
基金
浙江省科技计划项目
项目编号2014C23003
浙江省气象局项目
项目编号2011YW05
关键词
高速公路
交通气象影响
评价体系
评估模型
expressway
traffic meteorological impact
evaluation system
evaluation model
