碳减排目标下的广东省产业结构优化研究——基于投入产出模型和多目标规划模型的模拟分析

The Optimization of Guangdong Province's Industrial Structure under the Objective of Carbon Emissions Reduction——A Simulating Analysis Based on Input-Output Model and Multi-objective Programming Model

本文通过构建理论模型,证明了在经济增长率及技术进步率不变的前提下,可以通过加快调整产业结构来推动碳减排目标的实现。本文将广东省作为案例,运用投入产出模型测算了广东省28个产业的经济关联与碳排放关联,根据这两种关联的差异选择出需要限制发展和需要鼓励发展的产业组别,在此基础上,利用多目标规划模型设置不同情景,对广东省2012年的产业结构进行了模拟分析。模拟结果表明:通过在综合权衡碳排放关联和经济关联的基础上采取差异化的产业结构调整政策,广东省可以在保持总投入不变的前提下,同时实现降低碳排放与保持经济较高增长的双重目标:而且产业结构调整的力度越大,预期碳排放减少和GDP提高的幅度也越大。主要启示是:在进行产业结构调整时需要统筹兼顾产业之间的经济联系与碳排放联系,通过实施差异化的产业政策,寻求合意的均衡点,从而同时实现调结构和保增长的"双赢"局面。

This paper theoretically proves that adjusting industrial structure could realize the carbon redUcing objective under the premises of keeping economic growth rate and technical progressing rate constant. As a case, this paper estimates the economic linkages and carbon emissions linkages of 28 industries in Guangdong based on the input-output model, and chooses constrained industries group and encouraged industries group according to the differences between the two linkages. Then it applies multi-objective programming model to simulate the change of industrial structure of Guangdong in 2012 in different scenarios, and the simulating results show that Guangdong could keep inputs unchanged and realize the goals of reducing carbon emissions and promoting economic growth through implementing different industrial structure adjusting policies based on considering both carbon emissions linkages and economic linkages and that the bigger of the adjustment strength of the industrial structure, the lower of the decrement range of expected carbon emissions and the higher of the increment range of expected GDP. The main implications are giving overall consideration of the economic linkages and carbon emissions linkages, carrying out different industrial policies, and seeking desirable equilibrium to achieve the win-win situation of adjusting structure and guaranteeing economic growth simultaneously.