基于机动车政策的城市交通可持续发展建模研究

Modelling of Sustainable Development of Urban Traffic Based on Vehicle Policy

基于系统动力学方法,融合环境因素,构建以机动车发展政策为调控因子的城市交通可持续发展系统动力学模型,并进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:政策干预对机动车保有量、GDP、总人口及NO2污染指数起有重要作用。对机动车的严格限制政策可有效减缓交通拥堵水平,降低车辆出行百分比,减小车辆出行量,敦促公众出行放弃私家车而选择公共交通,是当前改善公共交通服务质量较为适宜的方法。为减少城市交通发展对环境的负面影响,不仅要采取车辆保有量限制政策,还应采取重点研发及推广交通节能减排新技术等有效措施降低单车能耗与排污量。

Using system dynamics, integrating environmental factors, we built a system dynamics model of urban transport sustainable development, which taking vehicle development policy as the regulatory factor, and made an empirical study. The result shows that （ 1 ） policy intervention plays an important role in the indicators of vehicle possession, gross domestic production （GDP）, total population, and pollution index of NO2~ （2） the policy of strict restriction on vehicles can effectively relieve traffic congestion, decrease the percentage of vehicle travel and reduce vehicle trips, and urge people shift from private vehicles to public transport, it is the more appropriate way currently to improve the service level of public transport. To reduce the negative effect of urban transport development on the environment, we should take the restriction policy on vehicle possession and simultaneously put focus on the research, development and promote effective measures of energy-saving and emission-reducing technologies to reduce energy consumption and emissions of each vehicle.