从金融危机看中国企业出口退出与企业财务状况的关系

Chinese Enterprises' Export Exit and Corporate Finance:Financial Crisis as a Moderator

文章基于1998～2011年中国工业企业数据库数据．从融资约束的视角来探讨企业财务状况对出口退出的影响，并对比企业财务指标在金融危机期间和非金融危机期间对其影响的显著性。研究发现。企业出口持续时间段大多数处于2—6年之间；金融危机期间，企业退出出口市场的风险始终高于非危机期间：流动性强的企业出口退出风险要低．但杠杆率对出口市场退出风险有负效应，与我们的研究预期不一致。文章并进一步考虑了金融危机的调节作用，金融危机期间相对于非金融危机期间．流动性对企业出口退出风险的影响反转为正效应．杠杆率对企业出口退出风险的影响在减弱，高借贷比的企业相对于低借贷比企业有更强的出口优势，出口退出的风险相对要小。

The article investigates the effects of corporate finance on export exit from the perspective of financial constraints based on the data （1998~2011） of China＇s industrial enterprise database, and compares the significance of corporate finance indicators＇ impact on export exit in the financial crisis and non-financial crisis. The research finds out that corporate export mainly lasts 2 to 6 years; the risk of export exit in financial crisis is always higher than that in non-financial crisis; the the export exit risk of enterprises with strong liquidity is low, but leverage has negative effects on the risk of export exit, which is inconsistent with our research expectation. The article also further considers financial crisis as a moderator. The result indicates that compared to non-financial crisis, the effect of liquidity on the risk of export exit will turn to be positive in financial crisis; the effect of leverage on the risk of export exit is weakening; enterprises with high borrowing ratio has a stronger export advantage and less risk on export exit compared to enterprises with low borrowin~ ratio.