吉林省能源消费碳排放变化趋势预测与影响因素分析

Analysis on the Carbon Emissions Long-term Trends and Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption in Jilin Province

探讨区域能源消费碳排放的长期变化趋势对碳减排政策的制定和减排目标的实现有重要意义。该文以吉林省为例,研究基于STIRPAT模型能源消费碳排放的影响因素,分析其历史变化特征,分别设定节能情景和节能-低碳情景预测吉林省未来的碳排放走势。研究结果表明,经济增长是影响碳排放的主要因素,碳排放强度的下降是抑制碳排放的主要因素;随着时间的推移,碳排放先后经历碳排放增长期、高峰期和回落期,整体呈倒"U"型趋势;相较节能情景,节能-低碳情景碳排放增长趋势放缓且各年份碳排放水平更低。

The study on the long-term trend of regional Carbon emissions from energy consumption is important to the development of carbon emission reduction policy and the implementation of emission reduction targets. In this paper, taking Jilin Province as an example, with setting the energy-saving scenario, energy-saving and low carbon scenarios were studied on the influential factors of carbon emissions based on STIRPAT, its historical changes were analyzed, and the future trend of carbon emissions in the Province was predicted. Results showed that, the economic growth is the main factor affecting the carbon emissions, and the carbon emissions intensity is the main factor to restrain carbon emissions. With the passage of time, carbon emissions has showed the growth period, the peak period and the decline period, which is the inverted ＂U＂ type of trend. Compared with the energy-saving scenario, the carbon emissions growth trend of energy saving and low carbon scenarios has a slowing growth trend with lower levels of carbon emission each year.