陕西省碳排放与经济发展关联性研究

The study on the correlation between carbon emission and economic development in Shaanxi Province

研究陕西省碳排放量的测算,预测未来碳排放态势及对区域经济发展的影响。基于清单法和非线性最小二乘法,运用碳排放余额法和超对数模型模拟预测研究。测算了1991—2013年陕西省的碳排放余额,预测陕西省2020年的单位GDP碳排放余额为0.313 9,比2005年水平减少18%,且碳排放随着人均GDP增高逐步增大,但增幅以平均1.6%水平递减,因而,陕西省碳减排压力较大。针对陕西省碳排放情况,提出继续走区域低碳经济发展道路,提倡清洁能源研发和应用;提倡生态、循环、集约型的农业生产模式;提升区域居民的低碳环保意识;增加生态补偿力度等有效减排措施。

The paper studied the measure and prediction trend of carbon emission in the future as well as the influence on regional economy development in Shaanxi Province. Based on the listing method and the nonlin- ear least squares method, remaining carbon emission and super logarithmic model are applied in prediction. To estimate the carbon emission of Shaanxi Province in 1991--2013, remaining carbon emission of per unit of GDP in Shaanxi Province in 2020 is 0. 3139, 18% less than 2005 levels, and the fact that carbon emission in- creases gradually when per capita GDP increase is found, but growth at an average level of 1.6%, so the pres- sure to reduce emission is big in Shaanxi Province. To solve the problem of carbon emission in Shaanxi Prov- ince, regional low-carbon economic development path are put forward, with clean energy research ＆ develop- ment and application; ecological, green, intensive agricultural production mode are given; residents need to know more about low-carbon environmental protection; effective measures of emission reduction is requested to increase by strengthening ecological compensation.