基于Verhulst与线性回归组合模型的港口吞吐量预测研究

Port Throughput Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Error Corrected Verhulst Model and Linear Regression Combined Model

由于港口吞吐量预测的复杂性,在许多情况下,单纯利用一种特定的预测方法进行预测往往具有片面性,为尽可能使预测结果具有较高可信度,基于"误差平方和最小"为最优准则,建立灰色Verhulst时序残差修正模型与一元线性回归模型的组合模型,将其用于某港口货物吞吐量预测,经验证组合模型具有较好的预测效果,并对该港口未来3年的货物吞吐量进行了预测。

Owing to the complexity of port throughput forecast,using one prediction technique always is partial in many cases.In order to increase the reliability of result,aiming the square sum of error, the combined model of gray Verhulst series error correction model and simple linear regression model is constructed to forecast the port throughput capacity.It is proved that combination model＆#39;s predic-tion is effective and the port throughput capacity in the next 3 years is predicted.