基于Granger方法和ECM模型的制造业与物流业联动发展研究——以合肥市为例

Based on Granger Method and ECM Model Research on Jiont Development of Manufacting and Logistics Industry——In the Case of Hefei

基于2004～2013年的合肥市相关统计数据,从探析制造业与物流业的联动发展方面入手,通过构建ECM模型与运用Granger因果关系检验对制造业与物流业联动发展进行实证研究.研究结果表明：合肥市制造业与物流业之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,但仅具有单一方向的Granger因果关系;合肥市制造业对物流业的推动作用明显,而物流业对制造业的提升相对不足.根据以上结论,最后提出促进两业联动发展的对策建议.

Based on the related statistical date from 2004~2013 in Hefei, srarting from analysis of the linkage development of manufacting and logistics industry. We structure the ECM model and utilize Granger causality test to empirical research on the linkage development of logistics industry. The estimation results show that the manufacting and logistics industry of Hefei has a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and a single direction Granger causality; manufacting industry promotes the logistics in- dustry obviously, on the contrary, the promotions of the logistics industry to manufacting industry is inadequate. According to the above conclusion, finally we put forward the countermeasures to promote the linkage development of the manufacting and logistics industry.