农户参与林业碳汇意愿影响因素分析——以云南省凤庆县镇康县为例

Analysis on the Farmers' Desire about Carbon Sequestration in Forestry——Taking Fengqing and Zhenkang County in Yunnan as an Example

为揭示农户参与林业碳汇项目的影响因素,以云南省凤庆县镇康县为例,在项目区和非项目区分别选取了106户和100户随机样本,经过调查得知两个样本区农户的参与意愿比例无区别均为50%;运用调研得到的数据和计量经济学模型二元Logistic回归方法对农户参与林业碳汇意愿进行了分析。结果显示:文化程度、家庭年人均收入、农户环保意识、对碳汇林未来经济预期四个变量对农户参与林业碳汇有显著性影响,根据分析结果对农户不愿参与林业碳汇进行了深层根源分析,并以此提出激励农户参与林业碳汇的政策建议。

In order to reveal the factors about carbon sequestration in forestry, in this paper, taking Fengqing and Zhenkang County in Yunnan as an example, in the project areas and non-project areas were selected 106 and 100 random samples, after investigation that the farmers＇ willingness to participate are not very high in the two sample ar- ea. Using continuous survey data of households to analyze the factors which can affect the farmer＇s desire about car- bon sequestration in forestry by dynamic econometric models of Binary Logistic Regression. The results show that： education, household per capita income, Farmers＇ environmental awareness, carbon sequestration forest future eco- nomic expectations have significant effects on the farmer＇s desire about carbon sequestration. Based on the results the paper analyzes the reasons why farmers do not want to participate in forestry carbon sequestration and put forward some policy recommendations.