诉讼量与经济增长的动态关系--基于灰色关联度与VAR模型的经验证据

Dynamic Relationship Between Litigation Amount and Economic Growth—Empirical evidence based on gray correlation degree and the VAR model

基于中国1983-2011年诉讼量与国内生产总值的相关数据,建立灰色关联度模型,对诉讼量与经济增长之间的关联度进行了测算.研究发现,诉讼量与经济增长之间存在着较高的关联度,但不同类别案件的诉讼量与经济增长的关联度有所差异.在此基础上,建立向量自回归模型,运用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果关系分析、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法对诉讼量与经济增长的动态关系进行实证研究.结果显示,人民法院审理一审民事案件收案数和人民法院审理一审行政案件收案数均与经济增长之间存在着长期的均衡关系,经济增长是一审民事案件收案数的Grange原因,其对人民法院审理一审民事案件收案数产生正向效应.民事诉讼案件数量的增多在一定程度体现了社会经济的发展、公民维权意识的增强、法律体系的逐渐完善以及国家法治化程度的提高.

This article builds a Grey Relational Model to estimate the correlation between litigation and economic development in China during 1983 to 2011. The study finds that there is a high correlation between them, but the correlations axe different among various types of cases. On this basis, this article sets up a Vector Auto-regression Model and uses the methods of Cointegration, Granger Causality Analysis, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition to study the dynamic relationship between litigation and economic development. The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic development and the number of first-instance civil and administrative cases received by People＇s Court. Economic development is the Grange reason for the number of civil cases received first-instance, and it also has positive effects on it. The increasing number of civil cases reflects the development of society and economy, the enhancement of citizen rights awareness, the improvement of legal system and the increase of national legalization level.