区域一体化综合交通规划:基于交通预测模型研究

Regional-Integrated Comprehensive Traffic Planning:Based on Forecasting Model

交通预测模型是综合交通规划的重要工具。本文以汕潮揭地区综合交通规划为依托,以TransCAD为平台,构建区域综合交通预测模型,对规划方案进行量化研究,摒弃了传统"理性规划"交通需求引导滞后、与土地利用互动不强等局限。基于预测模型和"一张网"布局规划,构造了"情景假设+因子递进"方法,设计若干战略规划方案,通过对测试目标与决策评价结果的量化比较分析,展现了"情景因子"战略方法对于总体规划方案的贡献,研究过程和研究结论更显客观科学。

Traffic forecasting model with flexibility and openness is a powerful technique used in comprehensive traffic planning. Based on the comprehensive traffic planning in the Shanchaojie region （the region including Shantou, Chanzhou, Jieyang of Guangdong province） and regional integrated traffic forecasting model built with TransCAD, the paper focuses on the quantitative research in this region. The technique gets rid of some limitations in the traditional ＂rational planning＂, such as hysteresis in traffic demand and weakness in transportation-land use system interaction. Depending on the forecasting model and ＂one-network＂ layout planning, the idea of the ＂scenario plus factor progressive＂ approach is put forward and used in designing a number of strategic planning. Through the quantitative comparative analysis of the evaluation result, the paper displays the contribution that the ＂scenario factor＂ acts on comprehensive planning. Moreover, the research process and conclusion are more objective.