山洪影响调查评价与预警体系建设方法研究--以昌江芦溪河段为例

Investigation and Assessment of Flash Flood Effect and Research on Construction of Early Warning System: Take Luxi Reach of Chang River as A Case

以山洪影响调查成果为基础,评价了昌江芦溪河段受洪水影响的程度,建立了水位预警指标体系和水文预报模型。得出的主要结论有:昌江芦溪河段洪水影响机率不到5年一遇,罗村最典型,个别年份重复受灾,属典型的山洪影响威胁区;以既有水文站点为基础,建立了水文站点的水位与上下游村落淹没基础信息的量化关联,形成"1对N"的预警关联体系,标定了集合对象的成灾水位(75.50m),分析结论与实际调查结果吻合;研究了昌江流域产汇流规律,建立了预报模型。本文的评价思路与预警体系构架方法可以作为完善山洪灾害非工程措施、中小河流水文监测系统实际应用的参考,对各地正在开展的山洪灾害调查评价工作具有参考意义。

Based on the survey results of flash flood impact, this paper evaluated the flood influence in the Luxi reach of the Chang River and established the water level warning index system and a hydrologic forecasting model. The main conclusions in- clude： （1）, the risk of flood is less than once in every five years in the Luxi reach of the Chang River, which belongs to the typi- cal area affected by the threat of flash flood; （2） the warning water level of flash flood in the Luxi reach is 75.5m; and （3） the re- al-time and forecasting results of the Luxi station can be used as the guidance of flood warning for the adjacent reaches. The method of evaluation and framework of warning system can be used as a reference for improving the non-engineering measures a- gainst flash flood disasters and operational application of hydrology monitoring system in small and medium-sized rivers.