“单独两孩”政策对人口出生性别比的影响效应分析

Study on the Impact of Selective Two-child Policy on Sex Ratio at Birth

如果生育控制政策会导致出生性别比升高,那么"单独两孩"等生育调整政策必然会对出生性别比升高的势头产生缓解效应。为了检验这一假设,本研究采用2014年各省(区、市)的最新数据来探讨单独两孩政策对出生性别比的影响。结果发现,单独两孩政策对一胎出生性别比有缓解作用,但对二胎出生性别比可能存在恶化的效应。因为单独两孩政策实际上给了有男孩偏好的单独夫妇一次选择性生育的机会,客观上恶化了二孩出生性别比。因此,治理出生性别比的关键在于改变男孩生育偏好的生育文化。

If the birth control policy would lead to the increase of sex ratio at birth, then the fertility policy adjustment such as the selective Two-child policy is bound to ease the momentum of increase of Sex Ratio at Birth. To test this assumption, this study employs the latest data on the Sex Ratio at Birth from all the provinces to investigate the effects of the selective Two-child policy on the Sex Ratio at Birth. This paper concludes that the selective Two-child policy will ease the sex ratio at birth of the first child but worsen the sex ratio at birth of the second child. Because for a couple having son preference the selective Two-child policy actually means another chance to have a son, which will worsen the sex ratio at birth of the second child. Therefore, the key for easing the sex ratio at birth is to change fertility culture of boy preferences.