新疆对外贸易与经济增长的关系探究——基于协整分析

A Study of Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Xinjiang——Based on An Co-integration Analysis

本文根据新疆1978年—2013年的统计数据,通过构建VAR协整模型以及VEC模型对新疆对外贸易、经济增长以及投资三个变量进行动态分析。结果表明:从长期来看,新疆对外贸易和投资与经济增长之间具有唯一协整关系;而经济增长与对外贸易和投资存在单向因果关系。从短期来看,对外贸易和投资是经济增长的引擎,特别是对外贸易无论在近期还是远期都对新疆经济的快速增长有着巨大的推动作用。因此,当前应将政策的着力点放在优化投资方向、调整产业结构和出口商品结构、发展边境贸易、建立与周边国家互联互通机制等方面,以促进新疆对外贸易的发展,发挥新疆作为丝绸之路经济带核心区的作用。

According to the data from 1978 to 2013 in Xinjiang,by introducing investment variables and constructing VAR co-integration model and VEC model,the paper makes a dynamic analysis of three variables,that is,foreign trade,economic growth and investment The results showed that： in the long run,there is a unique co-integrating relationship among foreign trade,investment and economic growth in Xinjiang. There is a causal relationship between economic growth and foreign trade,individual investments. In short-term,foreign trade and investment are engines of economic growth. In the short-and long-term,foreign trade has a great role in promoting rapid economic growth in Xinjiang. Therefore,it is of great importance to guarantee both the quality and quantity of the trade products and the focus of current policy should be placed on optimizing the investment environment,adjust the industrial structure,improve the additional value of the product and play the core role of Xinjiang as the economic core zone on the Silk Road to promote the corresponding policy to develop foreign trade in Xinjiang.