摘要
准确预测电力需求是进行电网规划和建设的必要依据。本文提出并设计了一套考虑行业用电特性的GM(1,n)灰色模型预测方案,并研究了14个主导行业对禅城区电力需求的影响。通过关联度计算,发现其中5个行业电量发展趋势对禅城区电力需求的影响十分显著,最后给出了考虑关键行业因素的最优GM(1,n)预测模型。应用实例表明,考虑用电特性的GM(1,n)模型精度较高,预测误差较小,该电量预测方法具有实用性和有效性,为提高电网规划水平提供了指导和参考。
Planning and construction of power grid depends on accurate electric forecasting. This paper firstly brought forward the GM（1,n） prediction method based on electrical characteristics in different industry, and studied such effects on the electric power demand in Chancheng as its fourteen leading area. Then, it was found that five area had a significant influence on electric consuming by correlation degree analysis. Lastly, the optimal GM（1,n） model considering the key factors was brought out. Application examples showed that the forecasting by this method was more accurate. It demonstrated the validity and applicability of the optimized GM method and provided guidance and reference to improve the level of power grid planning.
出处
《新技术新工艺》
2015年第6期46-49,共4页
New Technology & New Process
关键词
灰色系统
GM(1
N)模型
行业用电特性
关联度
电力预测
grey system, GM（1 ,n） model, electrical characteristics, correlation degree, electric power prediction
