中国省域人口迁移模型构建

Research on Chinese provincial migration based on gravity model and GIS

针对传统的人口迁移模型不能适用于多种省域人口迁移的影响要素的问题,该文提出了一套构建在GIS平台上研究省域人口迁移的新模型。采用重构引力模型,借鉴国土功能评价指标并与多种统计分析方法相结合,解决了以往简单模型指标单一的问题,实现了对各省份综合实力的准确评价;并进一步将人口迁移预测值与实际人口迁移数据进行比较,达到了较好的预测效果,对差异进行分析。基于我国各省份人口迁移的研究结果表明:该模型较为准确地反映出我国各省对迁移人口的吸引力呈东强西弱的现状,且差异值极大。

In view of the traditional migration model cannot be applied to the migration problem with a variety of factors affecting, this paper put forward a set of new construction model of inter--provincial mi- gration on the GIS platform. Based on gravity model reconstruction, the problem that traditional gravity model only has single index was solved by using land function evaluation indexes for reference combined with statistic analysis methods to accurately evaluate the comprehensive strength of each province. The comparison between migration predictive value and the actual population migration data indicated that the proposed model was of better results in prediction effect. The model reflected that the population migration attraction in the eastern of China was stronger than the western of China with great difference.