基于系统动力学的大连市出租车保有量预测

Prediction and Simulation of City Taxi Quantity based on System Dynamics

采用系统动力学模型,找出影响出租车规模内外因素间的因果关系,包括经济、人口、机动车保有量、出行需求、政策等.在系统结构分析和因果反馈分析的基础上建立了出租车系统,以大连市出租车相关统计数据进行仿真计算,分析了不同的发展政策对出租车系统的影响,提出相应的建议和对策.

A system dynamic approach is presented based on the cause and effect analysis and feedback loop structures. The SD model includes population,economic development,number of vehicles,travel demand and transport supply. The model runs in Vensim PLE software using the data from Dalian city. The coefficient of the intervention policy of vehicle ownership is chosen as the control variable for simulation,and the impacts of different policy scenarios on urban development and transportation system are analyzed.