北大西洋热带气旋路径预报的难度变化分析

Difficulty analysis of tropical cyclone path changes forecast over the North Atlantic

为了提高热带气旋的短期气候预测水平,选取1851-1870年北大西洋热带气旋样本,按照热带气旋在不同海域的路径差异分成5个区域,利用基于偏最小二乘回归的气候持续法,建立预报未来气旋中心位置的模型,对1871-2010年每个区域的气旋进行路径预报。根据预报结果与实际数据的误差分析每个区域的预报难度,利用小波分析法找出预报难度变化的周期性规律。结果表明,北大西洋海域热带气旋路径预报的难度呈现从南向北以及从东向西递增规律,靠近大陆区域的部分热带气旋路径发生转折,这些区域的预报难度有所增大。中高纬度区域是气旋路径有旺盛期向衰亡期转折的区域,影响气旋路径的因素较多,该区域气旋路径预报的难度更大。

To improve the accuracy of short-term forecasting of tropical cyclones,the 185 1—1870 annual samples of the Norh atlantical hurricane were selected.Firstly,The North Atlantic was divided into five regions in accordance with the path difference.Then,the forecasting model of future clones was estibished with the method of climate continuous based on the least squares.Finally,by the analysis of the error be-tween the actual data and the forecast results,the difficulty of forecasting of each region and its periodic regular pattern were achieved by using wavelet analysis method.The results show that the difficulty of forecasting the path of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic waters increases from south to north by lati-tude and from east to west by longitude,while the path of tropical cyclones near the mainland part of the region is a turning point where the forecast is more difficult.The area of high-latitude is a transition region where the cyclone path experiences from a strong period to a decline phase.Factors affecting the cyclone path in this region make it more difficult to forecast the cyclones.